Week 13 - Holy Fuck Its Week 13 Already

"You can't get a ticket for $17 to my house."

- Michael Bennett on inexpensive $17 tickets for 49ers games

Hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving, jk I could give a fuck.

Lane Kiffin somehow the biggest and best troll of all time right now

My Holiday gift to you all, an invitation to the Browns 0-16 parade.

Speaking of the Browns, Josh Gordon is back… feel free to add him to your lineup even though we don’t award points for intoxication… check out this great article about how he used to chug Mad Dog 20/20 before games just to up the difficulty (no shit he really did though).

The craziest thing I saw this weekend come from high school football though… I NEED to know the story behind this

Once again, congratulations to Brian for winning this year’s Golden Gobbler. Keenan Allen scored 28.7 points on 11 receptions, 122 yards, and 1 touchdown. He is the third receiver to win this award (only receivers have won it actually) and the first to do it I believe with only a single TD on the day.

Random/throwback observation of the day:

And let’s not forget our other sponsored segment, fun fact of the day, brought to you by Semenax.

Hope you enjoyed the Thanksgiving feast of Cowboys misery as much as I did.. DILLY DILLY!

And then we drank for 2 days and all of the sudden it was Sunday afternoon… Zay Jones wasn’t hungover though

But the Chiefs were

I wasn’t hungover but the Eagles convinced me to go for me a 7th straight day of drinking… We partied hard Sunday.

This is what happens when Philly starts winning…

Also, shout out to the sneakiest FIRE(John)FOX sign of all time… hope you caught this

The true highlight of Sunday was our big ticket fight though, the rematch between Aqib “The Chain Snatcher” Talib and Michael Crabtree

This one broke out just 3 minutes into the football game folks… that’s when you know it was planned.

Lol at Marshawn Lynch walking him to the tunnel because street recognize street

Talib came away with his second career Crabtree chain, impressive stuff.

Less impressive, the Denver Broncos

Another big week for the league, we outscored every other week 12 in league history... CONGRATS EVERYONE!

We have some serious color rush blasphemy this week fam. Washington takes on Dallas this week in an NFC East matchup of fan bases who are always waaay too optimistic. The Cowboys were going to be decked out in their “all-white for the alright alt-right” uniforms

While the Washington racial slurs were supposed to be wearing these gorgeous hangover piss yellow color rush classics:

HOWEVER!!!! Jay Gruden decided he’s tired of our weekly color bukkake and he wants to shout the safe word. So now it’s possible that the Redskins are gonna go rogue (no Charlie not Star Wars) and do without the Color Rush uniforms… personally, I think this is punishable by either death or exile, especially considering our history of treating Redskins.

Plenty of talent to go to waste on a short week of rest and preparation

I promise I’ll have a full playoff breakdown again this year, it’ll be completed by the end Thursday. We’ll let you know exactly what gets you into the postseason.

Without further ado.

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Week 12 Review

Falls Church FOBS 125.7 @ Call Me Big Popp-ah 127.3

Phil could’ve really used a win last week. He would’ve maintained control of his destiny in the race for Schwifty second place and placed himself within striking distance of the playoff’s 3 seed. Amazingly, however, Sam pulled off the comeback claiming a victory in the third closest JPFL game of all time. This one was back and forth through the primetime slots, making for an incredibly exciting matchup. Heading into Sunday night, Phil trailed by 42.8 points. His Dynamic Duo of Bell and Brown showed up big time though, scoring 57.2 and giving Phil a 14.4 lead with just one player to go for Sam. Nuk Hopkins came through in the clutch though, catching 7 balls for 125 yards and 16 points. The catch that put him over the top came with just 9 minutes left in the game. Hopkins would get one grab for 6 yards after that so this matchup was literally 2 drives, if that, form being entirely the opposite result. There are a lot of ways Phil could’ve won this game, but I think the most obvious is Jared Cook. Phil’s tight end put up an abysmal 0.6 points when simply 2.3 would’ve done. That’s two catches for 6.5 yards each…

Take it away my nibba, Rascal Flatts:

O.J. Broncos 97.2 @ Preterbinary Boggender 81.2

I’m honestly starting to feel bad for Joe. It’s one thing to lose Zeke to suspension, Joe knew that was possible when he drafted him. To then lose your first-round draft pick the same week is an absolute nail in the coffin. Joe lost his first two draft selections and his waiver replacement for either of them all in one week. Once again, the QB position didn’t put up the 20-point mark I think it needs on a weekly basis to overcome that type of hit at the RB group. Tack on sub 5 point showings from the keeper, T.Y., and returning TE, Greg Olsen, and you have a magical compass that can only lead you to the fucking danger zone. Pat almost found a way to lose this one. He handicapped himself for Joe by starting 2 bum running backs as well. I’m going to need the Eagles to feed Ajayi more though so that Pat stops complaining about his lack of production to me during every Eagles game now…. Still, it’s fun that Pat has to watch the Eagles every week now. Greg Zuerlein carried Pat to victory yet again. GREG ZUERLEIN HAS SCORED MORE POINTS THIS YEAR THAN LEONARD FORUNETTE, AJ GREEN, OR AARON RODGERS.

When your kicker is really a top 5 wide receiver and a fucking weapon:

Harrisonburg 81.7 @ Red Wedding 123.6

Brian pulled the crazy upsets in back to back weeks to claim the 2nd seed automatic qualifier in the Wubalubadubdub conference. This was huge for Brian because a loss in any of these games would have him way behind the 8 ball for a wild card, especially vs the Schwifty teams. This game was really a no contest from the minute Dak turned in a 4-point showing to follow up Golden Tate’s 4 on Thanksgiving. The penny scores kept showing up from there: Jordan Howard 2.4, Travis Kelce: 5.4, Brandon McManus: 2. Meanwhile, Brian saw great scoring days from 4 of his players rounded out by consistent pointage everywhere except on D. Brian finally made the right QB decision by dropped all but 1 of his QBs so that there was no decision to make. The rest of Brian’s team is injured so it’s basically on autopilot at this point. Brian is blacked out in the cockpit off of 3 Xannies and a cart’s worth of Svedka poppers. CoPilot accidentally choked himself to death with his seatbelt in a panic during take-off. It’ll either land itself now or crazy into a densely populated neighborhood centered on a primary school. Against all odds, this plane is currently on track to land 15 minutes early somehow.

Sit back and trust the process:

HEDONISM V: CHUCK’S FOLLY 109.4 @ Squanchtown Squanchers 124

I finally got my redemption for the week 6 game Charlie eked out over me on the back of Ingram’s 30 points day (that was the day Rodgers went down as well). Joe Mixon finally had his breakout game and I had my best performance of the season. Though Charlie did find yet another 30-point breakout against me, it wasn’t enough, with the rest of his lineup littered with sub 5 scores. Though Gronk had another big-time showing for Chuck, TEs are my goddam fucking specialty in fantasy drafts and Zach Ertz ain’t gonna be no exception. The only good thing Charlie did for himself this game is lose by less than 19.3 points. That was his lead over me in the points for category entering last week and is currently the margin by which he claims a standing lead over me as well. I kept my playoff hopes alive for one more week as the wild card scenario inches towards its ultimate 5-way tie of destiny.

Just keep Squanching (If I make the playoffs I will make Just Keep Squanching “Nike” tees:

Kings of Leon 113 @ Gnarly Kneelers 89.3

I think it’s finally time to ask ourselves if Plockett has a Nick problem… Nick has been Pat’s kryptonite since he joined the league, especially when he has no business beating Pat. He is water to Pat’s fire. The eraser to his pencil. The teenage pregnancy to his life dreams. This is a beautiful and budding rivalry that only gets better each meeting. Pat had a golden scenario headed into week 11. Joe appeared dead without his two best RBs and Brian had to go through himself and Jacob to make the playoffs. Meanwhile, Pat could win a game or 2 and secure a playoff trip and possible 3 seed. Suddenly, he’s on the backside of his critical and favorable stretch, eliminated from second place contention and to top things off, he might miss the playoffs entirely (after being a 95% lock to make it). Nick doesn’t have anything to play for until the consolation playoffs begin but he’s doing his best to make sure other people join him in the pit of misery and that’s the sign of a true champion.

If you’re miserable in fantasy, might as well do your best to make sure everyone else is:

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Power Rankings

*updated as of 11/30 12:21AM

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Game of the Week

Gnarly Kneelers (5-7)

@

Preterbinary Boggender (5-7)

Line: Kneelers -14.1

First off, it’s long overdue that I recognize Joe for being the first member of the JPFL to use an image from Deviant Art as his logo. You were literally one of the last 2 I would’ve guessed when this all started.

Moving on…

Joe’s team was flying high back in week 9, having won 3 in a row and 5 of the last 6. His playoff odds were at 70-80% and he looked like he had finally put his 1-3 start behind himself. Then the shit hit the fan.

Since week 9, Joe has lost 3 straight games, averaging 79.5 PPG in that span, failing to break 90 even once. The triple loss of Aaron Jones, Devonta Freeman AND Ezekiel Elliot in one week have seriously mauled Joe’s playoff hopes. Still… he has one last shot.

Though this game isn’t entirely a win and in for Joe (he needs a loss form myself as well), he can’t ask for much more after these last three weeks than to still have a chance. Devonta Freeman has cleared concussion protocol and may provide Joe with the sliver of hope he needs.

Pat has suffered a different kind of bad luck than Joe, he is coming off of a 2-game losing streak of his own but not due to any injury problems. His team is the second highest scoring in the league yet pat is tied for the second-worst record.

Every week he’s seemed to play a top scoring team, culminating in another loss to Nick, this time during his first 100+ point game since week 2. It’ll once again be on the shoulders of rookie Leonard Fournette and keeper Melvin Gordon to help Pat win and advance. A victory over Joe puts Pat into the playoffs, a loss, sends him to the consolation tourney.

This game is being played in a special live stream via hentai/anime concept art on DeviantArt.com. We’ve got a Deviant Art legend, Pervy Wink, on the call. Joe is a huge community favorite over there, that’s why he’s lead the league in jersey sales this season.

(fun fact: I was so stoned when I wrote that joke, that I stared at “overthere” for at least 5 minutes trying to figure out why it wasn’t being recognized as a word).

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Hunger Foul

Harrisonburg 21-16: 64.3 Bench Points

Phil and Charlie both left 60+ points on the bench as well, but Jacob finally claimed a hunger foul on the season. There really wasn’t a ton here that could’ve helped Jacob. Stafford went for a pedestrian 14 and still could’ve netted 10. Jermaine Kearse’s 20 would’ve been nice to have over Tate’s 4, but that’s it. Those two moves would’ve gained Jacob 30 points... enough to lower the margin of defeat to 12. Brian had another one of his “120 out of nowhere” games to put things away cleanly. Jacob has a meaningless 1 v 2 championship teaser matchup this weekend and then he enjoys essentially a second bye.

Waiver Move of the Week

Preterbinary Boggender

Drop RB Rex Burkhead, Add WR Kenny Still

SCALE 1 to 10:

In hindsight, what was an incredibly bad waiver swap for Joe, as Burkhead would’ve netted him 12.1 points over Still in the FLEX last week. I wanted to use this as an opportunity to discuss skill vs. luck in fantasy (and forecasting at large). Given Joe’s current roster, he had 3 options in the Flex last week: Marvin Jones Jr., Rex Burkhead, or a waiver pickup. Jones is the stud of the group, and though you can argue that he’s a must-start in his current hot streak, Minnesota’s league-best secondary wasn’t exactly a juicy matchup, especially on a short week. Burkhead is part of the fantasy rat poison New England backfield which tricks owners into claiming and starting a different one of its RBs every week only to give the points to whichever back is least owned at kickoff. Stills had an enticing matchup with New England’s secondary but perhaps Joe was too high on his 26.5 point showing the week before against Tampa. I think it all just goes to show what I try to point out whenever I get the chance: fantasy is such a muddled mix of luck and skill that’s it’s almost impossible to tell the 2 apart within the game. Should Joe have just started Jones against the “worst matchup” possible? He would’ve won so obviously it was the more skilled move? Or maybe it’s just the luckiest and didn’t want to look dumb if Jones went off for 2.5 like he did against Cleveland… You make a move, you stick with it and you hope it turns out for the best. You can read the numbers and soak in the experts all you want but at the end of the day, your success hinges on the random bounces of an incredibly unpredictable sport.

Bad Luck of the Week

Gnarly Kneelers

the curse

Usually, Phil’s 1.6 points loss be a shoe in for bad luck of the week but I have an alternative take that you may be interested in. Pat is the second-winningest owner in the league. After this year, I’m pretty certain Nick is last… Somehow, though, Nick is 3-1 vs Pat in the regular season. Against Nick, Pat is averaging 92.2 points a game, against the rest of the league that’s up to 118.1!!! Against Pat, Nick is averaging 116.1 points a game, against the rest of the league he averages 90.2!!! Those numbers are astounding. Essentially, when Pat and Nick play against each other, they swap teams and play the way the other does on a weekly basis. Nick score 90 a week and Pat scores 116 a week but when they face one another it swaps. The ultimate nightmare scenario I’m getting towards here is a possible Pat v. Nick matchup in the toilet bowl… If only we can be so lucky.

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Playoff Scenarios

Here we go.

Schwifty Division

Sam has clinched the 1 seed in the playoffs and in the division. Regardless of the result of his matchup with Jacob (or any other matchup this week) he will be the first overall seed in the tournament and is the champion of the Schwifty division.

Pat has a half-game lead over Phil for the second seed in the division. If he beats me OR if Phil loses, he’ll be second in the division and 3rd overall in the playoffs. Phil can claim the second seed in the division with a win over Charlie AND a loss from Patrick. Phil would also get the 3rd overall seed in this scenario.

Wubbalubbadubdub Division

Jacob has clinched the 2 seed in the playoffs and has won the division. Regardless of the result of his matchup with Sam (or any other matchup this week) he will be the second overall seed in the tournament and is the champion of the Wubalubadubdub division.

Brian has essentially clinched the 2nd seed in the Wubalubadubdub division. His regular season sweep of Pat means he cannot be jumped by the Lockett Rocket and Joe can only leapfrog him by netting a win and 139.3 points on Brian (that is impossible). So, while technically speaking Joe could score 200 points and somehow jump Brian but realistically, Brian has clinched the 2 spot.

Wild Card

This is where shit starts to get weird, so stay with me.

The Wild Card is currently a 7-team race.

Pat Butler is in prime position to claim the third seed in the division. He’s a lock to make the playoffs but if he loses and Phil wins, he would be jumped in the division and mitigated to the 5th seeded wildcard. Pat clinches the second seed with a loss by Phil. No matter what happens, he can’t finish worse than 5th.

Phil is just behind Pat in the race for second place in the Schwifty. If he beats Charlie AND Pat loses, he’ll be the third seed in the playoffs. A loss by Phil puts him in jeopardy of losing his playoff spot. Phil needs to avoid a 3-man tie or more with Charlie, and Joe and he’ll make it in. A Lockett win would really take the heat off of Phil, in fact, I think a Lockett win locks Phil into the postseason. If Joe (/and I both) wins and Phil loses, he will be eliminated, regardless of the outcome of my game.

Pat Lockett is next most likely to make it into the winner’s bracket. His scenario is the simplest of all: if he beats Joe, he’s in… if he loses to Joe, he’s out. He’ll likely be the 5th seed if he gets in, the only scenario that bumps him to the 6th seed would be Butler losing out on the 2 seed in his division and taking the 5th seed for himself.

My scenario is down to beating Butler and getting a win from Joe. Very straightforward.

Joe is in a similar circumstance. I believe his playoff hopes are 100% reliant on him winning + me losing + Charlie losing.

Charlie (like Joe and I) obviously doesn’t make it at 5-8. I’m pretty sure he is in the same boat as me, if he wins and Lockett loses, Charlie should be in. A Lockett win would force Charlie into a points tiebreaker with Phil for 6th place (he would need 110 points on Phil to win that).

If you have any questions about your playoff scenarios, text me and Pat and I will work it out and give you a definitive answer. I’ll be adding further detail and images to this over the course of tonight and Friday.

Remember, in the result of a 3-or-more-team tie, the head to head record tiebreaker is your record against the group AS A WHOLE. If you’re tied with 2 other teams, the head to head record will total to 3/4 GAMES for the 3/4 games you’ve played against the other two teams (1.e. 4-0, 3-1, 2-2….). Those ties are not resolved on an individual team-to-team basis within the group but rather against the group as a whole.

Here is a graphic with results based on the 3 relevant games: