Week 1 - A Bold New Era (sponsored by New Era)

“I love football. Football is my life” – Wayne Rooney

Its fantasy football season time for my favorite rapper who I still can’t decide is parody or not

Ok fuck that, play the classic

Welcome to 2020. Who knows who long it will last.

We’ve got a few new things this year. First off, in compliance with CDC Guidelines, you all must wear your Andy Reid face shield while doing any fantasy operations. Yes, even on mobile!

The constitution is up to date with all of our rule changes including a special section with COVID rules all in one spot.

With the start of a new year, you’re gonna be needing a new calendar. After a long planning session with Jacob; Nick and I picked a nice day with some great lighting and went to work to make the champs vision a reality!

Check out the discord channel to see the rest of the calendar as well as get a link to buy a copy for yourself, or a friend/loved one!

I realized in the planning process of this that I wrote out the rule in a really dumb way and we voted to both give the champion control of the overall theme and then each owner would get to “stylize” a month… that’s too many overlapping styles so we decided just this once to leave the calendar design in the hands of one individual for the sake of simplicity.

This season the calendar’s months will individually be drafted by the other owners who will each get to set the photoshoot for their selected months. The champion will get 3 months, the runner up will get 2, everyone else just 1. Please keep in mind when you pick your photoshoot that the loser IS NOT obligated to purchase anything extra for the photoshoot so if they don’t have the necessary props already, it’s on you to provide or you get what they innovate. Start planning now ;) but actually start planning it would be great if you had ideas in mind when the day comes this winter.

We’ll also have some new fun stuff this year. Pat is working on installing a new tool that should give us TONS of fun league and metrics at the press of a button. We’ve got a slightly updated power ranking to unveil next week that will have a new metric or two if things work out. And best of all, I am rolling out the rest of our owner emojis. Soon all of you will have 2/3 versions of yourself to use in the JPFL discord.

Stay as petty as DeAndre Hopkins in the chat or ill kick you

Time for a meme dump.

I know week one can often feel easy to write off but a lesson I took away from last season again because of the dumbass Eagles is how important one month of football is. 4 games are 25% of the NFL season (so like 33% of ours). So, go 1-3 over a month and you’re super fucked believe it or not.

You’re going to need 6 wins to be playoff competitive. Dropping week one means you need to be .500 for the rest of the year just to hit 6, winning game 1 means you just need to go .500 the rest of the year to be in. quite a difference.

And let's not forget the biggest reason to care a little bit more each week: the brand new weekly high score pot!!

Now, weekly regular-season excellence is rewarded in the JPFL as well. Dominate the league for 10 weeks but lose in the playoffs because your QB got hurt, you still get some cash as a reward for having the best team for some time. If you out-roster everyone else in the league we’ll add $10 to your running pot.

Even when you’re soundly beating your opponent, you have the chance to root for your roster against the 4 other winning scores (because mathematically none of the losers can be the highest scoring…) to try and win back some of that buy-in.

The average weekly high score in 2019 was 164.04. I think only one time the high score was in the 130s usually it was 140+.

Through 5 seasons, week 1 is the highest scoring week on average in the JPFL. The League average for week 1 is 115.52, just edging out week three by half of a point.

You generally see a drop-off in points around Week 5/6, which, coincidentally, is when the Bye weeks begin (and injuries stack up) and managerial decisions have to happen. Take advantage of these few initial weeks of smooth sailing to give yourself positioning (but then don’t also squander by losing your next 7, Charlie found out last year that it doesn’t work)

The Week 1 scoring record belongs to Nick Butler who made his debut in the league last year with a whopping 212!

The lowest week 1 total? Jacob hanging a 63.9 in his first JPFL game ever back in 2015, oh how times have changed… not really he won that year also.

As we enter our 6th season of play, the race for all-time wins is a close one lead by Jacob and Sam with 47 then PLockett with 46 and Brian at 45.

A few milestones on the line this week:

Pat Butler is looking to join the JPFL owners with 40 career wins club. Brian, Jacob Lockett, and Sam are the other 3 across that threshold. Only 1 owner has 40 regular-season wins though, Sam, Lockett will join him with his next regular-season victory. Brian and Jacob both should cross that mark this season as well.

Nick Leon is looking for his 25th win all-time in the league while Charlie and I play for the right to enter the 30 win club. Charlie is also looking to maintain his series lead against me.

Speaking of head to heads, here are your records vs your week 1 opponents.

Chuck 7 – 6 Thomas

Pat B 5 – 2 Nick L

Pat L 1 – 1 Nick B

Sam 6 – 5 Joe

Jacob 7 – 4 Brian

Without further ado.

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Draft Review

Grades (Courtesy of Fantasy Pros)

Once again, these numbers aren’t mine at all. FantasyPros aggregates the top fantasy “experts” and gives an Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR). These roster scores are ultimately based on those, narrowed down to the top 20 most accurate from last season. You’ll see the Draft Score FanPros gave you, your projected record (based on your schedule lined up vs your roster’s schedule, etc.), and your chance of making the playoffs, all as calculated by an independent 3rd party.

Some historical context that I know you’ll probably want:

Last season’s top three finishers Jacob, Lockett, and Brian were given draft ranks of 5, 2, and 3 respectively. Their scores, in that same order, were 78, 94, and 90.

3 of the bottom 4 in the last year’s draft grades ended up fulfilling their destiny and ending up in the consolation bracket. Honestly, FPros has been pretty accurate at picking out our bottom 4. The year prior (2018) it was 4 of 4. 2017, half of the graded bottom 4 finished there… Quick maths, that 9/12 = 75% accuracy and 7 of the last 8…

That being said, our bottom end is much more highly scored than in years past. Usually, the 80s were good for 5-7, now they put you at the back end… The projected distance between the bottom four and the top isn’t nearly as large as in year’s past and that should make for a very competitive season.

Our champion has almost always come from the middle of the pack with the outlier being 2017 when Sam was pegged 9th and went on to go 12-1 and win the league.

This is the 2nd year in a row the defending champion was graded with the best draft. This is also the highest average we’ve ever had in draft score BY FAR, so expect a competitive season.

1) Harrisonburg 21-16

100% = A+

Projected Record: (8-5)

Playoff Odds: 85%

Positions of Strength: TE (1st), RB (2nd)

Positions of Weakness: FLEX (10th), WR (6th)

The Derrick Henry keeper pays off big time, giving Jacob one of the best backfield groupings in the league. Jacob was also the first to take a TE, addressing the position in the second round if you’ve ever wanted to keep tabs on how the early TE strategy pans out. I think it could ultimately come down to his FLEX. If Jacob can find a breakout in his WRs it could be back to back titles. When you go early TE like that the draft kinda breaks around who you find that was ADPed 1 round too low. Do Morre or Sutton break into the upper echelon of WRs? Will Antonio Gibson finally be the back DC is looking for? Hopefully “FUCK NO”

I'm personally giving Jacob a 21-16

2) The Stoner Express

98% = A+

Projected Record: (6-7)

Playoff Odds: 62%

Positions of Strength: RB (1st), FLEX (3rd)

Positions of Weakness: TE (9th), D/ST(9th), QB (7th), K (7th)

Back again to preach the gospel of the RB-RB first and second picks. You’d hope to find more than enough production out of the 5 darts being thrown early at WR: Golladay, Lockett, Parker, Landry, and Edelman. As usual, it could come down to 1) how much the Flex RB can provide. Michel was a nightmare last year, just like Mixon in 17, Mack in 18 was a stud and the team went to the finals. Apparently, I have bad tight ends but I have Mike Gesicki so that just can’t be accurate. The question for my roster (and Nick’s too, being the other team that passed on a QB) is how many of the darts you threw instead of taking a QB convert. You take an extra tier 3 and 4 WR and maybe a few RBs on the better side of a backfield percentage split.

3) Minshew Mania

97% = A+

Projected Record: (6-7)

Playoff Odds: 55%

Positions of Strength: FLEX (2nd), K (2nd), RB (3rd), QB (3rd)

Positions of Weakness: WR (8th), TE (9th), D/ST (9th)

Another draft with a round or so of value picked up on a top-end RB. Just like our 3 pick, Brian decided to grab 3 running backs out of the gates… and look where it got you!!! 3rd!! I AM THE RUNNING BACK WHISPERER! Honestly, between the backs he has and Dak, Brian just needs a pass-catcher or two keeping the pace with double digits. That being said, he is heavily relying on the Browns to get him there so, good luck with that.

4) Lockett Rocket

96% = A

Projected Record: (7-6)

Playoff Odds: 74%

Positions of Strength: WR (2nd), DST (3rd)

Positions of Weakness: TE (6th), FLEX (7th)

An interesting twist on the 1st round RB value pick, Pat went WR-WR after, leaning toward the WR FLEX. QB should be consistently 20+ Zeke is Zeke, but Pat will need two things to be successful this year: 1) Melvin Gordon has to work out unless Swift or Moss are going to win a job and turn into RB1s, there isn’t a backup plan. 2) the WRs need to be monsters. Thielen and Adams will need to produce like top-end WRs every week with Diggs or Metcalf being the threat to go over the top. If the WRs are the right grouping, this could be a dangerous team. He isn’t as WR reliant as Sam, and the presence of Zeke gives him a really nice floor that’ll make for an interesting comparison.

As Rocket Man, Pat is the Elon Musk of the league

5) Richmond Police Football Team

95% = A

Projected Record: (6-7)

Playoff Odds: 45%

Positions of Strength: TE (3rd), FLEX (4th)

Positions of Weakness: QB (10th), WR (10th)

After fucking around for a few years wanting a stud QB, nice said fuck that and went full-on into the religion of passing on the quarterback. He took a value keeper at TE in the 7th with Mark Andrews and alternated RB/WR around that pick. Nick drafted at the advice of Pat who was picking 2 picks after him in the turn though so this is a great exercise in seeing how good all of the players PBut definitely didn’t want do this year. Nick walks away with a potentially very strong RB trio of Kamara, Gurley, and Bell and a bevy of WR options, most of whom are WR ½ on their roster. Toss in a Nagy RB, potential TD/% vultures of talent in LV and NE and AZ and this is a team that fills its purpose of having a depth of options. If Big Ben has a final glorious ride into the sunset this could be a marquee year for nick, if he doesn’t... jk he’ll just go to the waivers so if Ben sucks its NBD. Nick is certainly putting his managerial skills to the test this season but he’s certainly made sure he isn’t lacking for resources out the gates simply because his QB fell off a cliff. Nick has been burned too many times spending a 4/5 round pick on a QB who wasn’t worth it.

6) Call Me Big Popp-ah

93% = A

Projected Record: (6-7)

Playoff Odds: 57%

Positions of Strength: WR (1st), K (1st)

Positions of Weakness: QB (8th), D/ST (8th), FLEX (9th), RB (10th)

We’ve been talking about WRs a lot so Sam said fuck it lets go all-in on the wideouts. This has been Sam’s draft MO since the league moved to 3WR. Last season he went WR-WR-Keeper-WR out the gates… also taking Mike Thomas and Chris Godwin. Sam will be expecting RB1-RB1-RB1 production from his main pass-catching trio and honestly, Zach Ertz is basically WR1 in Philly so you can add him to the list of core contributors but Sam’s season will really rely upon consistency from Chris Carson, and ideally, Mack/Singletary/Dobbins to win or at least not least carries in their backfields as well as a strong bounce-back year for Matt Stafford. Lamb and Jeudy could pop off but beyond FLEX the question is who’s spot they take. Perhaps a breakout year for one of the two could lead to a 4th round keep and trading of an early pick for an RB?

7) Big Dick Nicks

93% = A

Projected Record: (7-6)

Playoff Odds: 75%

Positions of Strength: D/ST (3rd), WR (3rd), K (3rd)

Positions of Weakness: TE (7th)

I can already tell you this is going to be a roster where there are just some weeks where you are fucked facing them. Russ, CMac, and Rodgers are all on red alert any week to just randomly have one of “those games” where they score all of their team’s touchdowns and in wild fashion. Evans and Jones provide sellar WR potential but how long does Ingram hold of Dobbins, how good can T.Y. be with Rivers and how much does the FLEX provide with some high potential stashes? Those questions likely decide Nick’s season.

8) Genderfluid Nonbinary

91% = A-

Projected Record: (7-6)

Playoff Odds: 66

Positions of Strength: QB (2nd), TE (2nd)

Positions of Weakness: FLEX (8th), K (8th), RB (9th)

Joe is the control team. He “drafted” the best available player (BAP) at every single pick. This is what a draft looks like if you simply trust the projections and do 0 bullshitting. Though we give Joe no credit for the success of this roster outside of waiver moves, acquisitions, and start/sit decisions you can treat it as a control for your season, I guess. Every player on Joe’s roster after round 2 is specifically a player that was passed on based on the rankings and ADP. They were the players left over after 10 picks of you not wanting them.

9) The Butler Space Pirates of Planet Cuck 9

89% = B+

Projected Record: (6-7)

Playoff Odds: 42%

Positions of Strength: FLEX (1st), RB (4th), K (4th)

Positions of Weakness: TE (7th), WR (7th), QB (8th)

Pat had a 66 last year so this is really just 23 points of improvement… can someone say Jordan Year? Pat was talking to me about having a more consistent roster this year but also that was his thing last year so… we’ll see.

Pat took the same 3RB into 3WR combo as Brian so it’ll be interesting to see who goes further considering they were right next to one another at the 1, 2, 3 turn. CEH needs to do what Hunt did in 2017 and Drake needs to be what Johnson wasn’t for Pat last year, but there is high potential at the RB position. It’s unlikely he gets RB1 production out of his D/ST again this season, so Pat’s year likely comes down to finding a pass-catcher who consistently adds 10+ and Cam Newton getting the short-yardage TD/rushing usage he’s used to.

10) TETRAHYDRO CHUCKABINOL

80% = B-

Projected Record: (6-7)

Playoff Odds: 40%

Positions of Strength: QB (1st), D/ST (2nd)

Positions of Weakness: RB (8th), WR (8th), K (10th)

Chuck went rogue at pick 1 again. I figured he would follow suit of taking the highest-rated Packer or Steeler… but that would’ve been Devante Adams. If JuJu outperforms Adams, Chuck probably has to be in the mix for Owner of the Year again. He should outright win it if JuJu is a top 10 fantasy player. That being said Chuck has never fucking lost the league so let the man pick who the man wants to pick. Really gonna come down to which of the RBs work out and which don’t for Chuck. Mahomes is gonna get his points and the WRs should be fine but finding a consistent FLEX will be critical.

So, uh, I just previewed literally all the rosters and like there isn’t any new info or shit so that’s your week 1 matchup preview.

Brian will be here next week to look into the crystal ball and walk you down the path of previewing week 2

Enjoy this fresh week of football. See you on the other side.

Bye, friends.

Good luck this year