Week 2 - Back in the Saddle!

“A little Taco Tuesday mixed with a margarita."

- Keenan Allen on how he celebrated his $80 million contract extension.

Loving the ability to hear everything players say now more than ever.

Ah yes, week one is in the books which means it can only be time for one thing: OVERREACTION.

But before that, some memes

First off congrats to the Bucs on winning the Super Bowl. Tom Brady lost his season opener and he is 3-0 in winning the Super Bowl whenever that happens.

Second off, congrats to you, on being the recipient of a bevy of new JPFL statistics with which you can draw aggressive conclusions. If you haven’t seen the weekly report (pinned in the Discord chat) check it out. We’ll be posting it every Tuesday to fuel your smack talk and self-reflection!

Some of my favorite additions are the Playoff Probability breakdown, specifically the wins needed to lock in playoff status, and the Coaching Efficiency Rankings. Now we can see who really sucks and who doesn’t.

Congrats to the Butlers on officially being a FOOTBALL FAMILY. The Butlers had the 1st and 3rd most efficient lineups this weekend averaging a score of 96.38%. Of course, Nick is weighing the family’s potential down and Pat will rightfully shame him at the next family gathering for it (sorry, bitch, better try harder if you want top 2). This is going to be a useful stat come voting time for Owner of the Year, unless, of course, Pat Butler continues to perform well in this category.

Congrats to Brian on being the luckiest piece of shit in the league (according to science). He had a luck score of 66.6%. Put 2 and 2 together people… that’s CLEARLY a deal with the Devil. I’m gonna put our league exorcist on this immediately.

If you're wondering, Luck isn’t advanced enough to measure like player scores and roster probabilities, it is simply a breakdown of how lucky you were to draw your opponent on that given week based on your own scoring. So since Lockett would’ve shit on all of us, he had 0 luck (just skill bb).

Speaking of Plockett, congrats to the Rocket Man himself on claiming high score of week 1with 186.8

Nick hung up 212.6 to open last season, he finished 4th and eeked into the playoffs on a points tiebreaker that relied entirely on his brother going on a 3 game losing streak. Our eventual league champion opened on a loss and hung only the 5th best score of the week.

The regular season behemoth Lockett Rocket scored just 108.3 in a crushing loss, that was the second-worst score of the week.

In 2017, our other Nick opened the season with a league-best 137.5 (in a week where half the league didn’t even touch triple digits). Week 2 he followed up with 119 points, 3rd most in the league.

Draft steal Kareem Hunt was going to lead Nick to the promised land in his second year of action… Nick didn’t score moreover 100 points again that year until week 13. He was the first team eliminated from playoff contention, leading to the creation of this bad boy:

TBH I didn’t even know the Bad Boy rankings and Beefiest Boy rankings were included in this stats roll out but I am here for it. Congrats to me and Jacob for rightfully having teams with the most criminal record. Everyone, feel free to body shame the cuck pirates for being fat, and if you need vegan insights currently the weed farm out west is the place to go.

Also, folks, if you need any further proof of the benefits of medical marijuana, 2 teams in this league theme around THC and both of them lead the way in minimized COVID-19 risk. Nick, Brian, and Nick… get your shit together.

Let’s take a look at the way too early forecasted playoff bracket after one week of action

Big week for your playoff odds upcoming. If you end the month with 1 win, you’re mathematically very close to a 0% shot at the playoffs. If you can get to 2+ you’re well on the positive side of a coinflip to make it.

Without further ado.

Week 1 Review

Minshew Mania 123.2 @ Harrisonburg 21-16 108.1

Brian gets his revenge on Jacob for the 2019 Footnugget Cup. Though Chubb, Beckham, and Brown didn’t live up to expectations for the Mania, big days from Cook and Ridley brought Brian more than enough scoring to hold off a subpar showing from Jacob’s squad. While Jacob didn’t have too many more blemishes than Brian, he lacked the explosive 20-point outing Brian received. The real icing on the cake, Courtland Sutton being a MNF scratch with Roby Anderson’s 22.5 sitting on the bench. That switch alone would’ve won Jacob the matchup. The bigger concern for Wild is likely the RB position. Mixon and Henry combined for a mere 20.2 points and the bench didn’t show any signs of RB life aside from the potential of James Robinson winning a clusterfuck of a Jacksonville backfield.

Brian McAvoy Revenge Tour ™ Starts NOW:

Tetrahydro Chuckabinol 130.35 @ The Stoner Express 103.45

Folks, the theme in week 1 every year is “picking up where we left off” we just run back the last round of playoff matchups from last season. I might stop doing that because my team literally picked up where it left off, with everyone getting hurt. This matchup looked a lot different Thursday night than it did Sunday morning; An 18 point head start for Thomas the dank engine turned into a roster shuffling bonanza to try and fill the holes left by the first two actual picks I made in the draft. Making matters worse, Chuck had a roster destined to finish second in scoring for the week. JuJu had a 2 TD MNF performance and Mostert caught a 75 screen to shoot Chuck 13 points over his projection while the Steelers NFL best D line bottle Saquon and the Eagles league-worst 4th string RT gave Carson Wentz the worst half of football of his life.

Me watching Chuck run up the score Monday night:

Butler Space Pirates of Planet Cuck 9 126.5 @ Richmond Police Football Team 124.25

This was your nail biter of the week with MNF drama. A strong Thursday outing from new pirate darling CEH paired with solid top-end roster performances lead by Cam Newton himself put Pat in a great position to win. Nick came roaring back on Sunday as Slingin Ben Roethlisberger, who is THE perfect QB for the police-themed team (He has since done a 180 but still), fired off 3 tuddies to give the boys in blue a late Monday lead. With AJ Brown still to go, PBut entered the final game of the night with an 83% chance of winning according to ESPN… but slowly that would creep lower. AJ Brown was held catch less until 48 seconds before the half, dropping Pat’s win probability as low as 65%. Brown’s first catch gave Pat hope at the half, his third gave Pat the win. With 10:30 remaining in the 3rd quarter, Brown hauled in a 7-yard reception, giving Pat a lead he wouldn’t relinquish. The biggest difference in this matchup: roster management. Butler gave himself just about the best lineup he possibly could but Nick came in at 89% of his max possible score and while that was just 10% back of Pat, in a 2 point game, even 1% would’ve been the difference.

The Richmond Police tried to play coast guard and uh…. Did not go well:

Big Dick Nicks 123.4 @ Lockett Rocket 186.8

Nick officially has a Big 3. Russel Wilson, CMac, and Julio Jones give the mighty meaters arguably the highest floor in the JPFL every week, and every week it appears the question might be “what is the rest of the roster going to contribute?” Not one other non-QB went for double digits. Having the Aaron Rodgers Revenge Tour paired with the Russel Wilson MVP For Real This Time season might be night but potentially on will have to be traded for the big 3’s insane potential to not go to waste. Now let’s break down the anatomy of a weekly high score. 11.5 of Pat’s point came from catching!! 49.5 from receiving yards, 20 from receptions, and 42 from TDs. Toss on a big day from Matty Ice and 150+ and 2TDs on the ground and you start to tease 200. To have a week like this you’re pretty much gonna need 3 things: Top 5 day from your QB, a running back with a workhorse day, 2 top 10 pass catchers, 1 other breakout performance.

Week 1 was a Rocket Party (peep the jacket throw, damn daddy!):

Genderfluid Nonbinary 124.75 @ Call me Big Popp-ah 111.65

Some absolute superstar days on both sides of this matchup. Lamar and Jacobs both go over 30 while Carson and Nuk turned in top tier showing of their own. Most of this contest was even shot for shot; it’s really possible that the difference in things came down to a hobble Mike Thomas and DeAndre Swift dropping one last Stafford TD and (ironically) the Bears D/ST not really doing anything to the Lions O. Some managerial decisions might’ve seen different outcomes in this one but most of them just revolve around Joe teasing the weekly high score.

It was like looking in the mirror:

Power Rankings

*updated as of 9/17

Let’s break down the interesting tidbits:

First off, WTF, 6th best roster in the league for me?! That’s just disrespectful to Saquon Barkley who is the first best good player in all of football. Moving on…

Lockett unsurprisingly holds first place in every metric…. EXCEPT the Raghdal and ESPN Polls and where he is second to Butler and Jacob(???) respectively. Perhaps some Space and JMU bias among those voters? Perhaps they thought it was an optical illusion?

Who knows. He’s gonna have to win them over regardless if he wants that rare perfect “1” for Final Score.

It’ll be interesting to see how Tier 2 shakes out, especially with Joe and Chuck meeting this week (more on that later). Chuck would seem to be the outlier, with a Roster score of 10 while Captain Butler and Dr. Joe have much more similar statistical profiles.

Brian earns his own island in Tier 3, the rankings here telling us they weren’t in love with the performance the way they were with Joe but they still respect the win.

The top of the bottom half sees two Nicks with decent scoring but bad luck matchups affecting their results and then Jacob getting a bump for roster respect, ESPECIALLY from the ESPN poll. But since we’re bringing up Nick’s team in the power rankings it can only mean one thing… time for a song. That’s right baby the music is back… You thought it would stop when the name changed off the Kings of Leon well too bad you decided to name him THE POLICE!

Passed on Golden Tate

And on Kenyan Drake

Also Golladay

I don’t need those fakes

I got Younghoe Koo

Yeah Big Ben might break

Gurley’s just the same

Alvin just got paid

Allen wants a trade

I got Younghoe Koo

Oh can't you see

He belongs to me?

You can beg and pray, but I will never trade.

If McLaurin busts

And Mark Andrews sucks

Cheifs D gets no stuffs

LeVeon’s a cuck

Still got Younghoe Koo

Mixon’s gone. I still lost my fucking game.

I dream at night, I can only see last place.

I look around but it's Koo I can't replace.

I feel so cold, and I long for your embrace.

Keep on kicking Younghoe, Younghoe, please...

Oh can't you see

He belongs to me?

You can beg and pray, but I will never trade.

Yeah Big Ben might break

Gurley’s just the same

Alvin just got paid

Allen wants a trade

I got Younghoe Koo

Yeah Big Ben might break

Gurley’s just the same

I got Younghoe Koo

Sam and I round out the bottom because, of course, the list is alphabetical and meaningless.

Game of the Week

TETRAHYDRO CHUCKABINOL (1-0)

Genderfluid Nonbinary (1-0)

Line: THCC -12.8

If you asked the pundits last week, this would’ve ranked as the most improbable game of the week for week deuce. The two most derided drafts of the year now meet following season-opening wins in a matchup that will determine who takes the first 2-0 division start of the year in Macaroni in a Pot.

Though the winner would still likely be behind Rocketman Lockett in points, they would have the advantage of having one less divisional game in the way (and in any real-life sports league the divisional record would actually take precedent). One of these teams is about to put themselves way ahead of schedule with an improbable 2-0 start, according to the preseason polls. The other, while be tossed right back into the mix at 1-1.

With more on this matchup here is Senior JPFL Correspondent, Brian McAvoy.

This week’s JPFL marquee matchup is a battle for the early lead to reigning supreme in the Macaroni in a Pot division. Chuck comes into the matchup fresh off a 130-point performance which was the 2nd highest of the opening weekend while Joe was on the upper end of the mid-tier performers in the 123-125 range. Chuck is favored by ESPN with a spread of -12.6 and a 55% win probability (52.8% by FantasyPros).

Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are the two most exciting QBs in the NFL and JPFL and we’re gifted this matchup in week 2. Both owners will be hoping to see fireworks as they both have a question mark or two further down the roster.

The Achilles injury suffered by Marlon Mack has led to Indy RB duel between Chuck’s Jonathan Taylor and Joe’s Nyheim Hines who is Phillip Rivers's 11th child, I mean the next Austin Ekeler. Speaking of Austin Ekeler, Chuck will need last year’s version to resurface if he’s going to keep up with Josh Jacobs who popped off for 3 tuddies last week. Juju silenced the doubters (myself included) who questioned his first-round price tag by hauling in 2 TDs on MNF.

Juju and Cooper will be looking to hold off the Hill/Kupp/Chark trio of Joe’s WR core. Ruggs III is Chuck’s WR3 but is coming off an injury suffered in week 1. The WR edge goes to Joe which he’ll surely need as Chuck’s RB2/Flex duo of Ekeler, and Mostert looks quite deadly vs. Joe’s pair of Hines/Crowder. Crowder is questionable as well and is not Joe’s only injury to watch. Stud TE George Kittle suffered a knee sprain and will be looking to play despite being held out of practice all week.

He did finish the game on Sunday so it could be manageable. Joe will certainly be hoping so as he needs all hands on deck to take down the TETRAHYDRO CHUCKINABOL and establish himself as a division contender.

Charlie leads this series 5-3 all-time, the regular-season series is tied 3.

This game is being played in JPFL Primetime on a Zoom call

The Hunger Foul

Harrisonburg 21-16: 80.37% Efficiency

So, this award has had its definition modified over the years and this year perhaps it reaches its truest form yet. No longer will the Hunger Foul revolve around bench points. Too often this just punishes whoever lost and had the best backup QB. Now that we have sabermetrics we are going to use them so this award will go to the owner with the worst coaching efficiency in a loss each week. We can now calculate your highest possible score and what % of that you hit at the snap of the finger so we’re going to use the more accurate measure.

Jacob was our winner this week with an efficiency of 80.37% out of his max score of 134.5 (which of course would’ve beaten Brian’s 123.2). The biggest contributing factor: Courtland Sutton being ruled out of the late MNF game with no replacements for Jacob

Waiver Move of the Week

Genderfluid Nonbinary

Drop Darius Slayton (WR), Add Eagles D/ST

An unprecedented move dropping a WR1 to add the defense that annually wins the award for the longest time spent on the field. Actually, here’s your shocking stat of the week, despite losing the Eagles actually have the NFL’s top-rated defense entering week 2. TBH it was one bad half of football, so it’s not that crazy.

SCALE 1 to 10:

At least Joe has a supportive wife

Bad Luck of the Week

Richmond Police Football Team

2.25 points

You’d think I’d give this to myself for having Sanders and Golladay out, but Charlie went off enough that maybe it didn’t matter. The league average for 2/3 round picks combined scoring was 27.99 last week. I got 15.2 from my replacements so maybe a net of 12… it was really Carson Wentz’s negative point second half that did me in, had he repeated his first half this was a W. Nick on the other hand suffered the rough loss of the week. 7 different roster variations (mostly revolving around Bell) would’ve given him a comfortable season-opening win. His fantasy misery lives on.

Week 2 At A Glance

Minshew Mania (1-0) vs Planet Cuck 9 Space Pirate (1-0)

This matchup is a battle for the early lead to reigning supreme in the WAP division. No Cardi B, that does not mean what you think it does.

Both these squads took an RB-heavy approach to the first 3 rounds of their draft and both owners left the weekend feeling less than thrilled about their 2nd and 3rd round selections. Chubb was outshone in a blowout by Hunt and Conner got hurt 6 carries for Minshew Mania (new name being researched) while the Space Pirates were feeling well and truly cucked before TDs salvaged low yardage games for Aaron Jones and Kenyan Drake. Dalvin Cook and CEH showed why they were deserving of top selections and will need to keep it up this week. A narrow spread of Space Pirates -1.9 and a 50-50 win probability from ESPN means this should be a tight one.

Fantasy Pros gives Minshew Mania a higher probability of 56.9%. The theme of the matchup will be “What Can Brown Do for You?” as Minshew Mania will be rolling out THREE Cleveland Browns in the same lineup.

If they can’t get it done against the Bengals it will be a long season for me. This matchup is relatively injury-free although AJ Brown missed practice today for those from Planet Cuck 9 but Gallup is a solid replacement should things head south for Butler’s WR2. This game could be well and truly be decided this evening, all things considered.

Brian leads this series 6-3 all-time, 5-2 in the regular season

The Lockett Rocket (1-0) vs. Harrisonburg 21-16 (0-1)

The Lockett Rocket launched to new heights that Elon Musk would be proud of, posting the league’s highest score of the week by an astronomical 56.5 points.

Jacob’s title defense could have hardly gotten off to a worse start. He posted the 2nd lowest score of the week while losing to last year’s runners up, Minshew Mania, in the title game rematch to open the season. However, despite the drastically different opening weekends, this game is only a 2 point spread and the Lockett Rocket are surprising, although slight, underdogs.

ESPN has this game as a 50-50 tossup while FantasyPros gives Lockett at a decent edge at 56 %. It’s hard to argue with that outlook in my opinion. Lockett has Kyler Murray against the Redskins, perennial top 3 back in Zeke, and a WR core that started off the season on fire. Jacob will be relying on Watson, Henry, and Kelce posting top 3 performances while hoping Sutton returns and Will Fuller’s paper mache soft tissues hold up.

Jacob leads this regular-season series 5-4, the all-time series is tied at 5

Call Me Big Popp-ah (0-1) vs The Big Dick Nicks (0-1)

The first of two matchups this week between our week 1 losers is looking set to be a blowout at the moment. The Big Dick Nicks are favored by a whopping 29 points with a win probability of 61% from ESPN and 84.2 % from Fantasy Pros.

Of course, this all due to the injury bug that has struck Sam’s team. Sam exited the draft a little weak at RB but with the best WR trio in the league in MT, Hopkins, and Godwin. Mack was sent to IR, MT is looking out for weeks with a high ankle sprain, and Godwin is questionable after entering concussion protocol this week so D-Hop stands alone atm.

By replacing Mack/MT with the next man up (Singletary, Dobbins, Boyd, Lamb) Sam’s chance goes up from roughly 15% to 34.6%. While still a large underdog, Sam will obviously have a much better chance at the upset with a healthy lineup. Nick has some questionable players of his own in Julio and Mike Evans but Julio is always listed as questionable and Evans toughed it out last week. Nick will of course have CMC and Mr. Unlimited leading the way which should be enough to make it past Sam’s injury-plagued unit.

Sam leads this series 1-0 all-time

Richmond Football Team (0-1) vs The Stoner Express (0-1)

Lastly, we have our calendar model facing off against the Commish in a low-scoring affair. Sounds like a future Rodger Goddell scandal if you ask me (or Dan Synder). Nick lost Le’veon Bell to IR but let's be honest it’s a blessing in disguise. The Jets are a bigger dumpster fire than GOT Season 8 and Adam Gase is as clueless as David Benioff and Dan Weiss.

The Richmond Football Team has solid replacements with John Brown and David Montgomery currently riding the pine. Thomas has a much more lengthy and concerning list headed by his WR1 in Kenny G.

Kenny G still has yet to practice but the Stoner Express is pulling into the station and getting Miles Sanders back on board.

Which players are active will likely push this one way or the other but as of this writing Thomas is a slight 2.7 point favorite with a 51% win probability from ESPN and 50.4% from Fantasy Pros. However, if Nick updates his lineup Thomas actually becomes a sizable underdog with only a 37.1% chance to win per FP.

Thomas leads this series 4-2 all-time, 3-2 in the regular season

Alright y’all, blessing be upon thee for week 2

Time for a Thursday night crap show